First Private Astronaut!

Scaled Composites launched the first private astronaut Mike Melvill into space. I am so excited!

Although it was not as visually spectacular as a Saturn V launch, this milestone cannot be overstated. What makes this event so important is that a bunch of guys in a couple of hangars at a rinky-dink airport in the Mojave desert, with just $20 million in start-up capital launched a man into space. This event is as much a psychological milestone as it is a technological one. It is likely to get more investors looking at the potential of space tourism. Initial costs of using the SpaceshipOne design is likely to be around $100,000 per person. According to some polls, there are already over 5,000 people willing to pay that amount to become astronauts, even if only for a few minutes. That's a gross profit of 500 million dollars! After expenses that's still at least $300 million in profit. Imagine what Burt Rutan's company could do with that amount of cash.

Although Burt Rutan is remaining low-key on the subject, he's made no secret that he will continue to advance the state of the art in spacecraft, with his next big goal of being the first private company to launch people into orbit, not just low-earth orbit (LEO), but escape velocity out of earth's orbit altogether. If he suceeds in launching people into orbit, then the real space race will have begun, because it will set the psychological precedent that anyone can develop their own space craft with a modest sum of money.

Another factor to consider is as more of these vehicals are built, and more competitors enter the space tourist launch business, prices will continue to drop, more people will be able to afford a ticket, more vehicals will have to be built to meet the demand, prices will drop further, and so on. According to Rutan, it is not unreasonable to think a sub-orbital launch could cost as little as $5000 per person within 5-7 years.

Posted by paul at June 21, 2004 08:59 AM | TrackBack