This is very beautifully written, and you make a couple of points I would like to expoound on.

You said, "I tend to lean towards the latter, though I question how much of the Old Ways will disappear in the new paradigm."

This is my question too, and the one thing that I keep returning to again and again on this issue of accelerating information-technology-singularity is this:

Those with the power and money would seem to always have the advantage when it comes to using these technologies. Although the proliferation of the internet is a good example of how the power of computing eventually drifted to the edges of the network (us), I no longer see how this same democratic vector will happen with nanotech. DARPA has already invested several billions of dollars in nanotech, along with being on the verge of using the first full-blown quantum cryptographic network to hide their activities. Already, TIA simple change names, and is continuing anyway, this time in more black budgets and no longer under scruting from congress or the people.

Here is my point, the LEVERAGE of nanotech is so great, that those who first develop it would have such an enormous political advantage over everyone else on the planet, that I can't see how anything good could come out of it. The first group (most likely the military) to get a general assembler would write all the rules for everyone else from that point onward. At least that how it seems to me.

Here is my point, what can happen, needs to happen to prevent this nanotech feudalism from occuring? I have spent 15 years thinking about this very problem, and still haven't found anything REALISTIC that could prevent it from happening.

In the early years, I was always promoting the idea that nanotech needs to be COMPELETY transparent and open-source that way once the breakthrough occurs, everyone's got it. However, even in this utopian ideal, the risk is that if it is that open and accessible to people, then all it takes is one wackolune to create something really nefarious to destroy the world. As Mark Pesce is fond of saying, "the singularity portends the power of a nuke in the hands of a toddler".

Sorry for rambling, but this I think this is THE challenge of our age.

The Singulatarians solution is to build a friendly AI that will self-augment rapidly beyond humanity and make sure we don't kill ourselves off with these new godlike powers. Me - I've alway harbored the deep hope that there is something really deep, an archaic revival, a sudden radical increase in human intellingece, or somethng like what Grant Morrison was saying that some kind of 'alignment' would happen to the entire human species. But lets be frank, this is all speculation at best. At the moment, I'm not seeing anything concrete to prevent our extinction once nanotech gets out of the bottle.

Obviously, if you think or know something I don't, please share it with me and the rest of us who are paranoid as hell we are unlikely to survive run-away nanotech. That's not to say I'm pessimissitic. When it comes to ths singularity, I'm not optimistic or pessimistic, I'm hopeful.

Posted by: Paul Hughes at June 12, 2004 05:12 PM

Binary to Bipolar and Back Again, a comment on paradigm shifts and the singularity.

Posted by: metachor at June 12, 2004 11:24 PM

Paul, agreed. It is very likely that nanotech will quickly lead to UFAI which will result in our demise. Your idea of an "alignment" across the human species is wishful thinking. Humanity has very slim chances of surviving the next decade, but I want to up the chances - not by wishful thinking, but by consolidating resources (= millions of $$) to build something smarter and kinder than I am. As for nanotech, I am working with friends to up the chances that that goes well, but the proposed strategy is not easy. Feel free to put the following pieces together if you're interested in determining the nature of my strategy:

http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/works/nanotechdangers.htm
http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/works/nanotech.htm
http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/links.htm
http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/works/worlddomination.htm

Wow, I just noticed I'm 3rd on google for "nanotechnology dangers". Woo woo!

Btw, is it possible to link in these posts?

Posted by: Michael at June 13, 2004 01:56 AM

Hmm, where to start? I think it's appropriate to be wary of any new technology, aspecially one as powerful as nanotech. However, I think we're getting a bit alarmist here. Nuclear power certainly has had the potential to destory the planet, as do many of the research paths in particle physics. Even the internal combustion engine arguably has the potential to kill us all. But the sane hand of humanity's instinct towards self-preservation has so far prevented any of these catastrophes from occuring. Why suddenly is nanotech going to be the technology that we can't contain? We are not so stupid and the people engineering this science are generally quite concerned about the possible repurcussions.

I think you guys are falling into the trap that there is some cold, monolithic entity trying to overrun the planet with corporate greed and short-sightedness. That humans are too foolish to preserve themselves. While these things certainly exist, for every selfish, profit hungry CEO, for every soulless scientist, there are hundreds and thousands of regular folk who really just want to have a decent life and who work hard to make it possible. The "monolith" - whether it's corpoprate multinationals, megalomaniacal administrations, secret fraternities, or all of the above - is steeped in bureaucracy, innefficiency, and infighting. In other words: There is no monolith. There are cabals and conspiracies and special interests but there is no trust in a den of thieves.

Paul, your question about a new feudalism is a good one. Certainly the intial phase of the technology will llikely be bound to economics (did you know you can buy Dockers that use a nanoparticle mesh to wick away stains?). Pretty much any technology is only available to the wealthy when it is first introduced. As fabrication and materials get cheaper, the technology is more abundant. I don't believe there is anything inherent about nanotech that makes it any more capable of being held over our heads than any other technology. And we can't simply project our current state 10, 20, 30 years into the future and assume that everything will be basically the same but with a lot more technology. Things are moving too quickly now. I maintain that the current economic and political systems are failing; that they are headed for a crash and will be replaced by a new paradigm informed by a more rational and humanistic model. If at that point nanotech can be used to destroy us or save us, I believe we will choose the latter.

Humans are social animals. We need company. If 1000 people were on a ship that had a hull breech and there was a choice between grabbing a life vest and jumping over board, or throwing a switch that would save the whole ship, 999 of those people would throw the switch. I really believe that we don't want to destroy ourselves. Even most fanatics don't want to destroy the planet. They only want a better planet for their children.

Posted by: lvx23 at June 13, 2004 12:23 PM

The Maya have said that June of 2004 heralds the beginning of the arc towards 2012...

"The apparent Path of Venus over the face of the Father Sun (an ecliptic transit in relation to the Sun) has announced (in the past) drastic changes in the Earth, from cataclysms, wars, destruction (lack of food, plagues) to historical changes regarding the evolutionary development of both human beings and the Mother Earth (a destiny that is connected although not intertwined)." - Carlos Barrios , Mayan Priest, May 2004

Posted by: lvx23 at June 13, 2004 12:37 PM

Chris,

As always, I VERY much appreaciate your input. Your lack of cynicism and hope is exactly what is needed around here, and why I am grateful for your participation with Future Hi. :)

Having said that, I'm a hard nut to crack. I was not alawys this way. Even as little as two years ago, I was very optimisitic that something positive would come out of all this. I deeply yearn for returning to that level of optimism again.

Here is my main contention with your hopeful message:

IT ONLY TAKES ONE. We can wax poetic all day long about how the WHOLE is getting better, more flexible, enlightened... how systemically humanity is evolving, that the collective is going through a paradign shift, how all the old structures are dying and giving way to a new awareness, a new consciousness... a New Aeon. I agree with you completely with all of that. :) I can see it almost everywhere.

but, IT ONLY TAKES ONE. One idiot, one mistake, one dictator, one rogue wackolune, one person, somewhere, anywhere, to do something stupid or deliberately evil, and we all go extinct.

This does NOT apply to ANY of the previous technologies you discussed. With nuclear energy, there were too many safegaurds and systems of redundancy to keep it from proliferating. Nuclear power has always been a CHURCH of the elite, a technology and level of sophistication not easily duplicated without lots of money and knoweldge. Nanotech, hell even biotech, is different. We are rapidly approaching an era where anyone, even relatively stupid but highly motivated people will get their hands on extinction-possible technologies. We are rapidly approaching a time when it will only take one person, somewhere, and with a budget of a few thousand, or even hundreds of dollars to unleash hell on earth. Why?

Cheap, out-of-control replication.

Never in history, has there ever been this. Not once. All the technologies you described did not have the power of cheap, out of control replication. Sterling engines, nuclear power, all of these things took engineering and money to make just one or two of them. They did not have the power to replicate. Had someone made some kind of von Neuman machine in the 1950's that could replicate in the natural world using natural energy sources, then yes, such a thing could have happened then too. But again, the power of replication did not exist. Even more ominously, this replication power is at the micro- and nano- level, so it's EXTREMELY hard to contain once it gets going.

Frankly, I'm suprised we haven't seen a global bio plague that has wiped out 5/6th of humanity yet. Any theories why some estranged scientist like in the '12th monkey' hasn't done something like this? And yes, I have met people in the luddite environmental community who if given a chance would do something like this. Ted Kazinski is nothing compared to some of these crazy "evil" (more accurately, deeply misguideed) people I've run to in this community.

Posted by: Paul Hughes at June 13, 2004 02:39 PM

Don't get me wrong. I don't think the transition will be easy. There will certainly be much struggle and there are many pitfalls along the way. I do hope that there will be a suffen quantal shift that will affect the entire species. This is not at all outside the realm of possibility. Rupert Sheldrake has done some interesting research into morphic resonance.

The only thing I can say is that fear breeds fear, and a positive outlook on things is extremely important to a positive future. If your going to worry about runaway nanotech, then you should worry just as much about comets and asteroids and bacterial plagues. I like to think the human race has a greater role to play than just a momentary spark of light, self-extinguished through stupidity.

We are feeding the aether with our hopes and dreams, our fears and madness. Do not fall into the trap of the Archons. Stay positive. Listen to lots of reggae. :)

Posted by: lvx23 at June 13, 2004 10:54 PM

It's the weirdest thing, I was laying in bed today, unable to fall right asleep with the activity racing through my mind, and time seemed to contract and the last 4-8 years wasnt as long as i thought it was, and i thought, wow, thats the time left on the mayan timewave, and suddenly time contracted and I thought... this is it... we're on a long steep slope down the novelty wave, we just passed out of the Venus Crossing, and it kind of marked for me a kind of step on some level, like this arch to infinity you described the mayans referring to. And so coincidentally I read your comment about that just now and wanted to share that element of synchronicity.

Posted by: liquis at June 14, 2004 01:05 AM

I haven't finished it yet, but I think we're all going to be having a hell of a lot of fun ;-).

http://huganep.org

Posted by: Phil at June 14, 2004 09:25 AM

oh yeah... I also wouldn't be surprized if the singularity happened within the year

Posted by: Phil at June 14, 2004 09:29 AM

...we're actually going to have to slow it down...

Posted by: Phil at June 14, 2004 09:30 AM

From Drexler's recent paper debunking grey-goo (he's not so much debunking it as saying that replication is unnecessary... note the last line):

"In the light of controversy regarding scenarios based on runaway replication (so-called 'grey goo'), a review of current thinking regarding nanotechnology-based manufacturing is in order. Nanotechnology-based fabrication can be thoroughly non-biological and inherently safe: such systems need have no ability to move about, use natural resources, or undergo incremental mutation. Moreover, self-replication is unnecessary: the development and use of highly productive systems of nanomachinery (nanofactories) need not involve the construction of autonomous self-replicating nanomachines.

Accordingly, the construction of anything resembling a dangerous self-replicating nanomachine can and should be prohibited. Although advanced nanotechnologies could (with great difficulty and little incentive) be used to build such devices, other concerns present greater problems. Since weapon systems will be both easier to build and more likely to draw investment, the potential for dangerous systems is best considered in the context of military competition and arms control."

Posted by: lvx23 at June 14, 2004 12:29 PM

You guys have gotta check this out:

http://magnatune.com/artists/bledsoe

Posted by: Phil at June 14, 2004 01:51 PM

How old is this post?

Posted by: yaoi at September 24, 2004 11:12 PM

The HUMAN PARADIGM

Consider:
The way we define 'human' determines our view of self,
others, relationships, institutions, life, and future.
Important? Only the Creator who made us in His own image
is qualified to define us accurately. Choose wisely...
there are results.

In an effort to diminish the multiple and persistent
dangers and abuses which have characterized the affairs
of man in his every Age, and to assist in the requisite
search for human identity, it is essential to perceive
and specify that distinction which naturally and most
uniquely defines the human being. Because definitions
rule in the minds, behaviors, and institutions of men,
we can be confident that delineating and communicating
that quality will assist the process of resolution and
the courageous ascension to which man is called. As
Americans of the 21st Century, we are obliged and privi-
leged to join our forebears and participate in this
continuing paradigm proclamation.

"WHAT IS MAN...?" God asks - and answers:
HUMAN DEFINED: EARTH'S CHOICEMAKER
by JAMES FLETCHER BAXTER (c) 2004

Many problems in human experience are the result of false
and inaccurate definitions of humankind premised in man-
made religions and humanistic philosophies.

Human knowledge is a fraction of the whole universe. The
balance is a vast void of human ignorance. Human reason
cannot fully function in such a void, thus, the intellect
can rise no higher than the criteria by which it perceives
and measures values.

Humanism makes man his own standard of measure. However,
as with all measuring systems, a standard must be greater
than the value measured. Based on preponderant ignorance
and an egocentric carnal nature, humanism demotes reason
to the simpleton task of excuse-making in behalf of the
rule of appetites, desires, feelings, emotions, and glands.

Because man, hobbled in an ego-centric predicament, cannot
invent criteria greater than himself, the humanist lacks
a predictive capability. Without instinct or transcendent
criteria, humanism cannot evaluate options with foresight
and vision for progression and survival. Lacking foresight,
man is blind to potential consequence and is unwittingly
committed to mediocrity, averages, and regression - and
worse. Humanism is an unworthy worship.

The void of human ignorance can easily be filled with a
functional faith while not-so-patiently awaiting the foot-
dragging growth of human knowledge and behavior. Faith,
initiated by the Creator and revealed and validated in His
Word, the Bible, brings a transcendent standard to man the
choice-maker. Other philosophies and religions are man-
made, humanism, and thereby lack what only the Bible has:

1.Transcendent Criteria and
2.Fulfilled Prophetic Validation.

The vision of faith in God and His Word is survival equip-
ment for today and the future.

Man is earth's Choicemaker. Psalm 25:12 He is by nature
and nature's God a creature of Choice - and of Criteria.
Psalm 119:30,173 His unique and definitive characteristic
is, and of Right ought to be, the natural foundation of
his environments, institutions, and respectful relations
to his fellow-man. Thus, he is oriented to a Freedom
whose roots are in the Order of the universe.

At the sub-atomic level of the physical universe quantum
physics indicates a multifarious gap or division in the
causal chain; particles to which position cannot be
assigned at all times, systems that pass from one energy
state to another without manifestation in intermediate
states, entities without mass, fields whose substance is
as insubstantial as "a probability."

Only statistical conglomerates pay tribute to
deterministic forces. Singularities do not and are
therefore random, unpredictable, mutant, and in this
sense, uncaused. The finest contribution inanimate
reality is capable of making toward choice, without its
own selective agencies, is this continuing manifestation
of opportunity as the pre-condition to choice it defers
to the natural action of living forms.

Biological science affirms that each level of life,
single-cell to man himself, possesses attributes of
sensitivity, discrimination, and selectivity, and in
the exclusive and unique nature of each diversified
life form.

The survival and progression of life forms has all too
often been dependent upon the ever-present undeterminative
potential and appearance of one unique individual organism
within the whole spectrum of a given life-form. Only the
uniquely equipped individual organism is, like The Golden
Wedge of Ophir, capable of traversing the causal gap to
survival and progression. Mere reproductive determinacy
would have rendered life forms incapable of such potential.
Only a moving universe of opportunity plus choice enables
the present reality.

Each individual human being possesses a unique, highly
developed, and sensitive perception of diversity. Thus
aware, man is endowed with a natural capability for enact-
ing internal mental and external physical selectivity.
Quantitative and qualitative choice-making thus lends
itself as the superior basis of an active intelligence.

Man is earth's Choicemaker. His title describes his
definitive and typifying characteristic. Recall that his
other features are but vehicles of experience intent on
the development of perceptive awareness and the
following acts of decision. Note that the products of
man cannot define him for they are the fruit of the
discerning choice-making process and include the
cognition of self, the utility of experience, the
development of value-measuring systems and language,
and the acculturation of civilization.

The arts and the sciences of man, as with his habits,
customs, and traditions, are the creative harvest of
his perceptive and selective powers. Creativity is a
choice-making process. His articles, constructs, and
commodities, however marvelous to behold, deserve
neither awe nor idolatry, for man, not his contrivance,
is earth's own highest expression of the creative process.

Man is earth's Choicemaker. The sublime and significant
act of choosing is, itself, the Archimedean fulcrum upon
which man levers and redirects the forces of cause and
effect to an elected level of quality and diversity.
Further, it orients him toward a natural environmental
opportunity, freedom, and bestows earth's title, The
Choicemaker, on his singular and plural brow.

Deterministic systems, ideological symbols of abdication
by man from his natural role as earth's Choicemaker,
inevitably degenerate into collectivism; the negation of
singularity, they become a conglomerate plural-based
system of measuring human value. Blunting an awareness
of diversity, blurring alternatives, and limiting the
selective creative process, they are self-relegated to
a passive and circular regression.

Tampering with man's selective nature endangers his
survival for it would render him impotent and obsolete
by denying the tools of diversity, individuality,
perception, criteria, selectivity, and progress.
Coercive attempts produce revulsion, for such acts
are contrary to an indeterminate nature and nature's
indeterminate off-spring, man the Choicemaker.

Until the oppressors discover that wisdom only just
begins with a respectful acknowledgment of The Creator,
The Creation, and The Choicemaker, they will be ever
learning but never coming to a knowledge of the truth.
The rejection of Creator-initiated standards relegates
the mind of man to its own primitive, empirical, and
delimited devices. It is thus that the human intellect
cannot ascend and function at any level higher than the
criteria by which it perceives and measures values.

Additionally, such rejection of transcendent criteria
self-denies man the vision and foresight essential to
decision-making for survival and progression. He is left,
instead, with the redundant wreckage of expensive hind-
sight, including human institutions characterized by
averages, mediocrity, and regression.

Humanism, mired in the circular and mundane egocentric
predicament, is ill-equipped to produce transcendent
criteria. Evidenced by those who do not perceive
superiority and thus find themselves beset by the shifting
winds of the carnal-ego; i.e., moods, feelings, desires,
appetites, etc., the mind becomes subordinate: a mere
device for excuse-making and rationalizing self-justifica-
tion.

The carnal-ego rejects criteria and self-discipline for such
instruments are tools of the mind and the attitude. The
appetites of the flesh have no need of standards for at the
point of contention standards are perceived as alien, re-
strictive, and inhibiting. Yet, the very survival of our
physical nature itself depends upon a maintained sover-
eignty of the mind and of the spirit.

It remained, therefore, to the initiative of a personal
and living Creator to traverse the human horizon and
fill the vast void of human ignorance with an intelli-
gent and definitive faith. Man is thus afforded the
prime tool of the intellect - a Transcendent Standard
by which he may measure values in experience, anticipate
results, and make enlightened and visionary choices.

Only the unique and superior God-man Person can deserved-
ly displace the ego-person from his predicament and free
the individual to measure values and choose in a more
excellent way. That sublime Person was indicated in the
words of the prophet Amos, "...said the Lord, Behold,
I will set a plumbline in the midst of my people Israel."
Y'shua Mashiyach Jesus said, "If I be lifted up I will
draw all men unto myself."

As long as some choose to abdicate their personal reality
and submit to the delusions of humanism, determinism, and
collectivism, just so long will they be subject and re-
acting only, to be tossed by every impulse emanating from
others. Those who abdicate such reality may, in perfect
justice, find themselves weighed in the balances of their
own choosing.

That human institution which is structured on the
principle, "...all men are endowed by their Creator with
...Liberty...," is a system with its roots in the natural
Order of the universe. The opponents of such a system are
necessarily engaged in a losing contest with nature and
nature's God. Biblical principles are still today the
foundation under Western Civilization and the American
way of life. To the advent of a new season we commend the
present generation and the "multitudes in the valley of
decision."

Let us proclaim it. Behold!
The Season of Generation-Choicemaker Joel 3:14 KJV

CONTEMPORARY COMMENTS
"I should think that if there is one thing that man has
learned about himself it is that he is a creature of
choice." Richard M. Weaver

"Man is a being capable of subduing his emotions and
impulses; he can rationalize his behavior. He arranges
his wishes into a scale, he chooses; in short, he acts.
What distinguishes man from beasts is precisely that he
adjusts his behavior deliberately." Ludwig von Mises

"To make any sense of the idea of morality, it must be
presumed that the human being is responsible for his
actions and responsibility cannot be understood apart
from the presumption of freedom of choice."
John Chamberlain

"The advocate of liberty believes that it is complementary
of the orderly laws of cause and effect, of probability
and of chance, of which man is not completely informed.
It is complementary of them because it rests in part upon
the faith that each individual is endowed by his Creator
with the power of individual choice."
Wendell J. Brown

"Our Founding Fathers believed that we live in an ordered
universe. They believed themselves to be a part of the
universal order of things. Stated another way, they
believed in God. They believed that every man must find
his own place in a world where a place has been made for
him. They sought independence for their nation but, more
importantly, they sought freedom for individuals to think
and act for themselves. They established a republic
dedicated to one purpose above all others - the preserva-
tion of individual liberty..." Ralph W. Husted

"We have the gift of an inner liberty so far-reaching
that we can choose either to accept or reject the God
who gave it to us, and it would seem to follow that the
Author of a liberty so radical wills that we should be
equally free in our relationships with other men.
Spiritual liberty logically demands conditions of outer
and social freedom for its completion." Edmund A. Opitz

"Above all I see an ability to choose the better from the
worse that has made possible life's progress."
Charles Lindbergh

"Freedom is the Right to Choose, the Right to create for
oneself the alternatives of Choice. Without the possibil-
ity of Choice, and the exercise of Choice, a man is not
a man but a member, an instrument, a thing."
Thomas Jefferson

THE QUESTION AND THE ANSWER
Q: "What is man that You are mindful of him, and the son
of man that You visit him?" Psalm 8:4
A: "I call heaven and earth as witnesses today against
you, that I have set before you life and death, blessing
and cursing; therefore choose life, that both you and
your descendants may live." Deuteronomy 30:19

Q: "Lord, what is man, that You take knowledge of him?
Or the son of man, that you are mindful of him?" Psalm
144:3
A: "And if it seems evil to you to serve the Lord, choose
for yourselves this day whom you will serve, whether the
gods which your fathers served that were on the other
side of the river, or the gods of the Amorites, in whose
land you dwell. But as for me and my house, we will
serve the Lord." Joshua 24:15

Q: "What is man, that he could be pure? And he who is
born of a woman, that he could be righteous?" Job 15:14
A: "Who is the man that fears the Lord? Him shall He
teach in the way he chooses." Psalm 25:12

Q: "What is man, that You should magnify him, that You
should set Your heart on him?" Job 7:17
A: "Do not envy the oppressor and choose none of his
ways." Proverbs 3:31

Q: "What is man that You are mindful of him, or the son
of man that You take care of him?" Hebrews 2:6
A: "I have chosen the way of truth; your judgments I have
laid before me." Psalm 119:30 "Let Your hand become my
help, for I have chosen Your precepts."Psalm 119:173

References:
Genesis 3:3,6 Deuteronomy 11:26-28; 30:19 Job 5:23
Isaiah 7:14-15; 13:12; 61:1 Amos 7:8 Joel 3:14
Ecclesiastes 3:1-8 Psalm 119:1-176
DEDICATION

Sir Isaac Newton
The greatest scientist in human history
a Bible-Believing Christian
an authority on the Bible's Book of Daniel
committed to individual value
and individual liberty

Daniel 9:25-26 Habakkuk 2:2-3 KJV selah

"What is man...?" Earth's Choicemaker Psalm 25:12 KJV
http://www.choicemaker.net/
Choice.maker@verizon.net

An old/new paradigm - Mr. Jefferson would agree!
(There is no alternative!)

+ + +

"Man cannot make or invent or contrive principles. He
can only discover them and he ought to look through the
discovery to the Author." -- Thomas Paine 1797

Posted by: James Fletcher Baxter at October 11, 2004 09:33 PM

Great. Tedious Christian spam. I think they're afraid of the paradigm shift. they're the one's who will be left behind.

Posted by: lvx23 at October 11, 2004 10:02 PM